Disappearing Lands, Emerging Lands: The New Geography of Food

Senegal, Guatemala, Cambodia, and Kenya are located in the tropical belt; all four equatorial nations host economies extremely vulnerable to climate. Yet overall, they account for 0.1% of current global emissions, compared to 37% from wealthy industrialized countries. Climate-dependent activities such as agriculture, fishing, and livestock are fundamental to their economies but increasingly sensitive to climate change effects. For example, irregular rainfall and related extreme events, such as droughts in Kenya and Senegal and sudden floods in Guatemala and Cambodia, are devastating the economic engines of agriculture and fishing. Fishing in Senegal employs 15% of its population but is devastated by global warming, poor waste management, pollution, and ocean overfishing. 

Today globally, it is estimated that 1/3 of all produced food is lost without ever reaching a table. Only in the European Union, estimates indicate, 126 tons of food are thrown away each year. A significant waste considering that more and more people cannot access adequate food and are at risk of poverty. Recognizing the magnitude and urgency of the problem, one of the SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals) aims to halve global per capita food waste at retail and consumer levels, and reduce food losses along production and supply chains by 2030. 

To avoid severe losses, farmers will need to start adapting by changing planting dates or using different crop varieties: in this way they can also make profits in higher latitude regions. Radical changes expected in agricultural production models could become a risk for food security in some areas, while others will benefit. Warming in high-latitude regions and increasing food demand could lead to the northward expansion of global agriculture: Canada, Siberia, Alaska, and Patagonia, for example, as the tropics will be too hot to cultivate. But any northward shift must consider the need for locally suitable crops.

For some cold-climate nations, such as Russia, Canada, Mongolia, Finland, Kyrgyzstan, Norway, Tajikistan, Sweden, or Iceland, climate change represents an unprecedented opportunity as they will become more temperate. There are many reasons to believe that these places will also see a remarkable influx of people displaced from hotter parts of the world. 

Russia is rich in resources. For centuries, the vast majority of the country's land was impossible to cultivate, but now a major transformation is underway in its eastern half. Since the climate began warming, opportunities to cultivate land have started to grow, and productivity will be enhanced by temperatures in the coming decades. Russia will surely be ready to seize this opportunity to become one of the planet's leading food producers. Melting Arctic sea ice will open a new maritime route between China and the West, controlled by Russia, which could reduce transit times by up to 40%, shortening routes to Europe and the United States.